SHARES in QBE Insurance were
crunched yesterday after it foreshadowed a 40 per cent slump in
first-half profit to $US432 million ($482m).
After reaffirming profit guidance in mid-June, the nation's biggest
insurer by market value said it would fall short of its target
insurance margin of 16-18 per cent, coming in at 15.7 per cent due to
lower insurance margins and investment income.
This followed
further drops in risk-free interest rates, used to discount outstanding
claims, since the company's London investor presentation on June 16.
The adverse trend eroded the insurance margin by 0.6 per cent, costing QBE about $US30m.
Chief
executive Frank O'Halloran predicted the full-year margin would rise
back into the target range, provided risk-free rates did not continue to
fall and insurance losses stayed within the company's "substantial"
allowance.
"The continued excellent underwriting results have been more than
offset by . . . lower investment income from reduced interest yields,
the fall in equity markets and one-off gains in the first half of 2009,"
he said.
"We are confident our insurance profit margin will benefit from our many initiatives, and expected rises in interest rates."
The
insurance margin is the profit from underwriting and investment income
on claims reserves as a percentage of net earned premium.
Despite
Mr O'Halloran's confidence, the market responded savagely, slashing $1,
or 5.6 per cent, from the stock to $16.97 -- its lowest point since
March last year. A Goldman Sachs JBWere research note said investors
would be disappointed by the downgrade, given the proximity of the
London briefing, while Citi said it continued to prefer IAG and Suncorp
to QBE.
Axiome Equities analyst Brett le Mesurier, who earlier
this month predicted the QBE downgrade, said more bad news was likely,
as the company navigated the insurance cycle. "The global commercial
insurance market remains soft, and it will fall further." Also
yesterday, QBE said it would join a growing band of companies with a
large component of offshore earnings to present its profit in US
dollars.
Leading Australian companies that already have done this
include BHP Billiton, Brambles, Computershare, James Hardie, Resmed and
Rio Tinto.
QBE, which has flagged the move for some time, noted it
had operations in 48 countries, with US-dollar business accounting for
about half of total premium income.
Presentation of this year's results in US dollars would "significantly reduce" foreign exchange volatility, it said.
Gross
investment income had been hit by $US228m in net realised and
unrealised equity losses, compared with a $US102m loss last year.
The
first half of last year brought one-off gains on foreign exchange and
debt repurchase of $US174m and $US46m, respectively. As a result, net
profit was expected to be down by 40 per cent, although the interim
dividend would be kept at 62c a share.
On the upside, acquisitions
and other initiatives for this year were projected to add about $US400m
in net profit, and about $US2.3 billion in new gross written premiums
annually by 2013.
Mr O'Halloran said QBE would continue with
carefully selected acquisitions, adding to its global footprint and
product diversification. "QBE's increased spread and diversification has
meant that we can now examine opportunities to improve our
effectiveness and efficiency on a global basis," he said.
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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/qbe-savaged-after-downgrade-to-profit-forecast/story-e6frg8zx-1225897194733