Research July 2010
Commercial Banks
26-Jul-2010
In the 1H10 reporting period, we estimate that ANZ’s group NIM received the greatest benefit from treasury followed by CBA .......
13-Jul-2010
The net interest margins (NIM) of the regional banks are the biggest swing factor. Within this item, it’s the net interest spread (NIS) which produces most of the surprise when it comes to result day. We have estimated the decline in NIS that each of ....
Insurance
27-Jul-2010
Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) has ended 2H10 with its 4th profit announcement/ downgrade in the past 4 months. While today’s announcement did not lower the FY10 insurance margin from 7%, it did contain the following nasties:
26-Jul-2010
QBE reported that its 1H10 insurance margin will be below the low end of its 16% to 18% target range for 2010 at 15.7%. This is slightly higher than the forecast margin of 15.5% that we published on 5th July.
21-Jul-2010
AXA APH today announced its 2010 interim dividend and expected 1H10
result, following the extension it (and AXA SA) gave to NAB to purchase its
Australian and New Zealand assets. Based on this result, NAB would be
acquiring those assets on an FY10 price to earnings multiple of 16.5 times.
05-Jul-2010
Falling equity markets and bond yields are expected to weaken AXA APH’s
regulatory capital position less than AMP’s. We estimate AXA APH’s excess
regulatory assets will fall by 6% from 31/12/09 to 30/6/10, compared to
AMP’s 20% fall. This is due to AXA’s greater use
05-Jul-2010
QBE reported that its 1H10 insurance margin will be at the low end of its 16%
to 18% target when it updated the market on 16/6/10. Had the investor
update been on 1/7/10
01-Jul-2010
Falling equity markets and falling bond yields weaken AMP’s regulatory
capital position and depress earnings. The XJO fell 12% from 31/12/09 to
30/6/10 and 10 year Australian government bonds fell to 5% so we expect
AMP’s excess capital to fall by 20% to $1B. This produces a ratio of NTA to
minimum regulatory requirement (MRR) of 1.4 times compared to 1.8 times
at the start of the year.
Diversified Financials
30-Jul-2010
MQG held its 2010 AGM today and also reported its 1Q11 results.............